Sunday, May 21, 2017

Random thoughts: Understanding myself better @ work

I am back at work for 2 weeks.

Beside the first 2 days, the usual hectic and crazy schedule is back. 4-5 to do things, bosses calling you in the last minute, staff looking to you to problem-solve, when I myself has plenty to troubleshoot

I am however, coping much better. Of course the long break help. But I have been down with flu, but my motivation has not been affected, I think I have figured why:

1) Always prepare my lessons even if it means I get less sleep.

I realize what made my day unbearable is not really the hectic workload. It is a bad lesson. A lesson where I thought I lost the kids. Thereafter, the whole day is spoiled and I feel super tired. If a lesson is great, seeing the kids smile (especially from that weak class), make me want to whistle to my cubicle.

2) It is ok to feel like drowning, laid back and it will float

There are times when I feel like screening, paper work after paper work, editing after editing. But because I did 1) at home, I can focus on the paperwork and administration  in school. Sometimes, I wish I could clear the things off my table faster, now I just stop for a while, and ask myself to focus. Its OK to take half-1 hour longer, without subjecting myself to those anxiety attacks in the past.

I am not sure if I am producing pupils with better results. But from the last 2 weeks, I think I am doing fine in producing pupils who are trying to learn. I hope I can sustain. It is quite crazy. I think I spent at least 14-16 hours preparing for 2 weeks of teaching. My record high. I am not complaining though. I am kind of enjoying it. Just that I find it a bit hard to balance it with family time.




Friday, May 19, 2017

Random thoughts: All about "S"s

The S refer to 4 things. Silverlake axis, Singpost, Situation at work and Scolding.

Silverlake and Singpost should see better times ahead. Silverlake recognition of Project services rev will pick up fromQ4 onwards. But the golden Goose of GIT is slayed. It stake is less than 5% now, and the accounting profits already captured in this quarter. 

There could be further loss or gain depending on OTC, but overall it's game over. 

So while the core operating no. Might be doing better, it might be offset by the volality of market prices. Also, according to RHB analyst, captured in the edge, the contracts win that will be recognize are small contracts. 

I however, beg to differ. Personally, I do not think ICT capex can be deferred for too long before a overhaul. Especially with the recent global malware scare. Of course, competitors made be taking the pie. I see growth prospects outstrip risk prospects. Also the strong cash position coinciding with the recent strength of Ringgit is a good thing for balance sheet. Acquisition should be on the cards. I have further accumulated silverlake recently 

Singpost as expected took a hit due to its impairment. It's operating no. Is also weaker due to poor performance of US subsidiary, Global Trade Winds.  

It's logistic hub and SP mall should more than offset its  problems in US. But I would like a better MOS.

It's execution records is really nothing to shout about. It's Lazada clinching, it's more of a work of Alibaba strategic alignment than Singpost's ability to clinch customers. But nonetheless, it's good news as it will improve utilization rate 

Situation at work, is a mixed bag. More sense of direction, happier teaching, but got into disagreements with close colleagues in the direction of things. Accused of being timid and afraid of "scolding", felt a bit insulted by this close comrade. Also, the chemistry seem to have wane, discussion is no longer candid and free flowing. 

What a boring week? Nothing to blog about in a way 

Friday, May 5, 2017

Random thoughts: 3 M at work

We all know the 3 M of investing.

My chapter as a student has closed. During this 17 weeks, I have been actively pursuing Method of the 3 M of my work. There is plenty of knowledge to be gain and it provide clarity. 

However, I realize yesterday I did not prepare for or thought the Mind will not be a problem. I am feeling super sianz and lazy. I did still spend the last day mugging and thinking in the library. I knew I wouldn't have the luxury of time and clear mind when I jumped back to work. Funny my sense of urgency to prepare as much as before for my return did not help in my Mind Part. In fact, all the symptoms of escape are obvious: Whinny, looking at companies to kill time ( my last post for Silverlake was a rather detailed one for a long while ). During 17 weeks, I did scan financial reports but feel that time can be better spent reading on my work related knowledge and talking to people about them. 

So what is Money at work? I believe it's time. The amount of time we spent to get what we want. Some people go for rara paper work, some focused excessively on results (KPI), whatever it is, u need to invest time (which is equal To money). I was hard up for time during work, because what I cared about, I can only allocated a maximum of 40% doing it. Hence I tried to save as much "Money" but trying to use "method" to make it work harder. I plan the big ideas for lesson way advance and think through them. Of course, I still need time to prepare for them but I just want to have a good helicopter view of the lessons and what can be done effectively for them. In the fry pan, effeciency is the key word of the game. 

So when the mind is not working properly, what can be done. The key is always acceptance and compassion. I could not accept I will lose my "good life" so quickly. The good life has made me weak again. So I allowed myself one day to wallop in sorrow and self-pity. I felt much better today, although not completely ready. I think I was a nuisance yesterday to some friends yesterday, LOL.

Let's hope the 3M realigned itself properly again. I used to do literal thinking, comparing my work with investment wisdom and see how it can be applicable. Now, I think the reverse can happen. My investment philosophy can be helped by my working ethics.

The workforce is getting more competitive. Time to get back to work. LOL.


Thursday, May 4, 2017

Random update on Silverlake axis

Recently, Silverlake axis has perform poorly in terms of price, especially as compared to iFast, which did better due to a few reasons: a) Positive outlook by management b) better results and 3) insider buying.

I realize the Cash Cow of Silverlake recently is having tough time.

GIT price has already halved (http://www.hupogu.com/S/SZ300465/view-post) and is planning a big acquisition spree. Its latest quarter is bleed almost 15 mio, so it is about 3 mio Sing dollars or 9 mio ringgit. Silverlake holds slightly less than 10% of GIT so its associate loss should be less than 1 mio. It would have change from a 2 mio profit to a 1 mio loss such that 3 mio is gone. But that is less than 3% of it gross operating profits.

There is also concerns what type of private entities of Mr Goh is going to inject into Silverlake. From the previous executive report by Delottie Singapore:

"One further SPE that accounted for 7.5% of the IPT revenue transactions and 85% of the IPT purchase transactions is an active company primarily engaged in the business of providing implementation, modification and integration of software solutions. This SPE has generated substantial revenues over the Review Period but has incurred losses and has a net deficit position as at FY2014. Mr Goh highlighted that the overall deficit position at FY2014 was mainly due to incurring technical resource costs for enabling and supporting disruptive technologies business model, and that this SPE did generate industry level profits on its transactions with SAL. "

and 

"65% of IPT revenue transactions were with 2 SPEs which are investment holding companies. These companies acquired the software to enable other SPEs to develop, improve, enhance and modify software and assets both for long term disruptive technology R&D and future digital economy solution development for commercialisation purposes."


There is no real value-addedness if the injected assets are the investment companies beside that of corporate governance. In the executive report, "Given the significance of the values of these contracts (about RM49 million) which the Silverlake Private Entities on-sold to end-user customers and acted as the contracting party, there should be better clarity and transparency in the determination process of whether the SAL Group or the Silverlake Private Entities would be the contracting party with the end user customer. The decision and the rationale should be documented and submitted to the AC on a periodic basis. This should be in addition to and separate from the current process to obtain the AC’s consent for Structured Services Business relating to the SIBS software." This problem will be eliminated if these 2 SPEs are injected.

However, the "competitor" of  "providing implementation, modification and integration of software solutions" can be a good asset if the SPE has turned in good profits. 

Silverlake has announced various contract wins through CBV and Merimen over the last 2 years, but revenue is still falling. I think the 1 year is enough incubation period. It would be interesting to see how its recent acquisitions are good diversification or diworsification.

Whatever the outcome, the record earnings from its staggered disposal of GIT in 2017 is a given. GIT might be a salted egg going forward. Based on my calculation, the break even price for GIT for silverlake is 4.9 RMB. It is still a muti-bagger at current depressed price of 12 RMB.

And Silverlake has been continously selling out from 20 RMB onwards.

I still think Silverlake has a good execution. Its recurring base of maintenance and enhancement has been growing. The insurance unit is growing too.

Going forward, I see 2 catalysts (POSSIBLE)

1) turnaround in earnings due to uptick in project servicing and licensing
2) Special dividends due to GIT sales.

Risk.
1) If 1) doesn't materialize and we get 400 mio rev from maintaince and lower margin of 55%. we get 220 mio Ringit, and the rest of the segments break even. after tax and NP of 200 mio, we will get 2.4 cents EPS. It would mean it is overvalued in terms of PE and assume 85% payout at current price we get 3.7% yield. Not too bad. But this overvaluation will only happen in 2018 since this year has GIT to slaughter. I would think this projection is very conservative given how aggressive Silverlake is going to SEA.

2) I think is not if there is no special dividends but the amount of special dividends. Silverlake has already announce intention to continue to sell GIT in this quarter, ASsuming full year EPS of 10 cents and they give 50% payout, 5 cents is good 9% yield.

I think there are many other operating risks involved too, but I thought I have the risk-reward profile in my favor for this one. I like to blog about a company just before their quarter result so that I dun tell myself little lies to deceive myself.

(Vested and biased) 

Friday, April 28, 2017

Ifast- words of management is worth its gold

Ifast went up 20% today. The main reason is management believe this year will be better than last.

Power of words. China is still losing money, doesn't matter. 

I wonder if all management words have the same "power"

(No vested)

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Random thoughts: Stock selection and market timing - Part 2

This is a follow up to the previous post. It is here I will try to reconcile some tensions.

1) Market timing is possible. 

If u are waiting for value to emerge, you are timing the market. When value is low, u buy, and over-valued u sell.

2) But The over-valued get higher and the under-valued get lower. 

This type of market timing is impossible. U can't really exit near top or bottom. 

3) Value is not static 

Waren says buy great company at fair value. 20 + PE is a steal if a company can grow strongly over a few years 

In fact, if u can company prospect like Warren, I would say PE 30 is a good price, because just 2-3 years of good double digit growth, PE will be low. 

4) Market Valuation of company is not static

The actual same company with same fundemental and earnings prowess can be worth different PE if the same company can travel through time. Even if Market is not depressed or exuberance, the Norma range of PE of a company like venture can be like 13-16. (Plot the PE sensitive graph over years yourself LOL) . There is 20% difference. Are we think 20 % correction is MOS? 

Conclusion

The better your skills at company prospecting, the lesser you need to time the market. The less confident you are about your prospecting skills, the wiser perhaps to wait for the right wave.

It might seem like a no brainer, but ask those in the sidelines with Cash waiting for correction/ or bear, it is not a nice feeling seeing bloggers brag about the Multi-baggers and also Kanching$$$ kanching$$$

My track record tell me a am not a very good stock picker so should rely on dip more. But i do have companies with growth prospect in my radar than I am willing to jump in at a dip. LOL


Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Random thoughts: Stock selection and market timing

Recently, my mum-in-law said she was afraid of Korea War, she asked me how. I told her if she is very worried, take some money off the market.

She asked me to take a look at her portfolio. Some of her counters were from donkey years, salted fish until cannot salt Liao. I ask her if she want to remove deadweight, she said ok. 

She showed me her sgx statement for the past few months, the period of STI rise of about 10%. I realize almost all her counters, also rise and gain with the market. Some of the counters are penny with no real future, but they still gain to different extent. The blue chip counters, those bought 2-3 months ago all gained. It's those that were bought way long ago that are still sinking in red

Makes me wonder if we are better off timing the market?