Sunday, August 13, 2017

Random thoughts: My Chinese Posts are doing better?!!

Warning: Bo Liao post

I am just very surprised when I took a look at the stats for my posts.

I should blog more in Chinese than in English or write about financial stuff.

You know what? Top country source is after Singapore is United States, Russia, and then Ukraine?

You mean so many of them read Chinese? Or there are more audiences in Singapore that read Chinese than I expected? The only Chinese majority country is no. 8 Hong Kong

My top posts for Company prospecting for the last 2 years (Have not been doing it recently) are for
Ascendas Reit, Accordia Trust and SIngpost. With pageviews of 1600 to 1800. The rest of my musings on investing is around 600-800? agar agar.

Chinese posts?

Top post is 2300; 随心笔:我的家-黄浦路, then around 1900 for 随心笔:无奈. Average views for these Chinese musings are around 1000-1400??

A bit weird right? LOL

I have my first post that cross 10k in my history of blogging.

Random thoughts: Overpaying by 400% for years

It is also not investment related.

I might need to change my blog name, and remove the word "investor"

Call it sillyheartlander

Friday, August 11, 2017

Lee Metals Q2 results sucks

Q2 results is out, it's profits fell almost 65% compared to a year ago, and 2017 is supposed to be a stronger year when demand for construction and hence steel is concerned.

In my earlier post:

"If we track BCA demand, 2015 is a bountiful year. Billing was 35 Billion. 2016 was 26 billion. 2017 minimum range is from 28 billion. The recent budget announcement has 700 mio public project brought forward. Of course, there is a possibility of demand falling short, but that is highly unlikely as these projects are local and mainly government projects (2/3 of projected demand) which will continue."

I also mention strong Steel price as a boon for Lee metals. I dun think I got the Macro picture wrong, as the management states as much as the higher revenue is due to higher steel price. The BCA website also mention the higher demand for construction is partly due to spillover effect of last work year delayed projects, so 1 H 2017 should show this demand.

Yet management says they are affected by competition and private residential slowdown. The fact that Lee metals is faring much better than BRC is not comfort to me, because at such EPS, 2 cents dividends a year is at risk. 

Operating numbers such as inventories, payables, receiveables, are also high as compare to previous years especially u consider the fact that steel
Merchandising arm is completely wound down. 

Yet the comments by management  is morbid.

"The company will have to continue to stay competitive to SURVIVE in this challenging conditions" 

I wonder if I have been looking at the wrong data, instead of Justine looking at construction demand, which didn't include the 700 mio from new town, biddari, if included would easily mean at least 10% more demand in 2018 in the worst case scenario.
I perhaps should look at the following 3:



I have not decide what I will do with my holding, to hold or cut loss. There is so much talk about property revival. Land sales figure show only very muted uptick



Thursday, August 10, 2017

Random thoughts: My first comic strip creation

Created to help my kids revise Chapter 11.

Feeling very proud of myself. LOL






Wednesday, August 9, 2017

Random thoughts: 15 years dabbling with stocks

I remember my very first stock buy. It was SIA. My brokerage then was jassion? Can't remember the name now, it was acquired by UOB Kay Hian soon. 

It was a $7 stock when I bought it after September 11. I bought only 200 shares. SIA has SIA 200 then. It is a bagger. 

It turns out, it is is the only bagger. I knew nuts about shares then, but I had a bagger. Ironic, if u ask me. I knew nothing  about FCF, growth prospecting, DCF etc.

I didn't need to hold it for donkey years either. If I remember correctly, the holding period is slightly more than a year. 

15 years... 

I lost almost all my university savings in CAO fiasco. Stop investing for a while, and re-enter the market during march 2009, buying only 3 lots of STI ETF and some OCBC 4.2 % preference shares at 80 cents when Par is $1.

Then I got mesmerize by s-chips. I got 20% trading profits in contra, 50% profits from Gao Xian, and I thought I might be able to make a living off buying and selling shares. 

15 years, I thought it's a long time to be zen about the market. Although short of a real bull-bear cycle with full skins into the game. I thought I could at least gotten the mind equation ready. 

Not true. Ironic 

Remember I boast about selling Venture and YZJ at 40 and 30% profits? Well, both formally cross the 100% gain today. I miss 2 more naggers after cogent again.

Venture hurt particularly strongly because, I have think hard about my "trading disposition" will never net me a bagger. So I thought of using advance order or trailing stop. I now realise the advance order and trailing stop can be applied in the mind. 

Of course, the exercise taught me some thing about advance order and allow me to think through quite a few things which are beneficial. YZJ, it didn't hurt so much, because it was a decision to sell, although the execution is poor with the advance order too close to market price.

For Venture, I had actually cancelled the advance order  because I didn't want to sell anymore. Didn't know I had to cancel everyday if I had bought in an advance order lasting for a week. What a joke. It was a "costly mistake"

What really disappoint me is not the lost "profits" but that I am actually emotionally disturbed by it. Looking at the 2 counters flying everyday is "painful"

Of course, there are lessons learnt again. But for this lesson to bear fruits, there is a long cycle to wait.  

Thursday, August 3, 2017

Random thoughts: Heath, fitness and endurance

Are they the same? Or rather, having one means most properly u had the other. 

My logicial answer is yes, but my experience says no.

I have people who run marathons and winning local races but also on medical leaves. They get genuinely sick easily. They might have agility and hour glass figure but one of them tell me if she doesn't get 8 hours of sleep, she will fall sick. 

I know of seniors at least with 15 more years plouging on and on despite all the "fatigue" and "ills" written all over the body.

Health is free from sickness. Of the three, although I like a better hunky figure that comes with fitness, I will choose health, then endurance than fitness.

Monday, July 31, 2017

Random thoughts: Outsmart by pupils, LOL

Today, I did a revision of vocabulary through a game.

They all became Pokémon Trainer. They search for printed quizzes with a picture of Pokémon. They by solving the quiz, they will get code for them to key into a webpage containing the picture of a Pokémon. They then just do a screen shot to "catch" the Pokémon.

There are altogether 16 creatures (common errors in vocabulary) in 32 sheets for them to find and catch. I am surprised that my class could catch a majority in 30
Min. My previous experience with my class last year (higher ability - although the quiz is tougher) , is most can only solve 6-7 quizzes

Some told me there are 2 ways to do this. 1 way is to just find the words in the grid of vocabularies and key in the code without looking for the quiz. (Previous year cohort can't do this, as their quizzes contain tougher and multiple answers). Another person told me he "hacked" the system. He said he saw the similarities with the webpages ended with the word q1, q2 etc and he extrapolate it and found the rest.

Smart! I realise the second method while adding more quizzes yesterday, but thought the kids won't be so smart. I am happily wrong.

There is also another group of pupils who sobatage others by hiding the quizzes they found. I told them that is unethical and selfish. 

I also told the kids they might be quick to finish the task but miss the important point of revising of vocabulary for those who "hack" the system. 

Then, came the interesting part. I told them find the fastest way to get the whole group to have the same number of pokemons as the top catcher.

Many were frantically sharing answers. 2 groups
Just took photos of the best performer and got it done in minutes. Brilliant. I threw the same challenge to last year cohort and no one thought of that. Maybe they are too honest. LOL. Sorry, I know many in my fraternality will frown and say I am teaching them to cheat. It's ok. To me, it's important to think Out of the box and as long as u dun harm anyone, it might pays to be unique and think differently. 

I am not sure if this group is naturally more "streetsmart" or my focus on "thinking skills" are having a impact. LOL

Friday, July 28, 2017